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You are managing a construction project using a fixed price (FP) contract. The contract is structured so that your company will be paid a fee of $85,000 to complete the work. There was a $15,000 overhead cost that your company had to cover. It’s now three months into the project, and your costs have just exceeded $70,000.

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The project team estimates that the probability of Task 1 finishing at the latest finish of "on time + 10 days" is 0.45. Task 1 finishing is event A. The project team estimates that the probability of Task 2 finishing on time is 0.8 if Task 1 finishes on time, but diminishes to 0.4 if Task 1 finishes in "on time + 10 days."

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The probability of that happening purely by chance is less than one in seven billion, so it's time to start thinking about explanations other than luck. Still, improbable things happen all the time: if you hit a golf ball, the odds it will land on a given blade of grass are millions to one, yet (unless it ends up in the lake or a sand trap) it ...

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Probability Questions with Solutions. Tutorial on finding the probability of an event. In what follows, S is the sample space of the experiment in question and E Two coins are tossed, find the probability that two heads are obtained. Note: Each coin has two possible outcomes H (heads) and T (Tails).Many project managers are under the misconception that the average completion time of the project is therefore also 2 weeks. However, the project will finish in 2 weeks only if each of the 10 tasks finishes in average or below average time. Assuming independent symmetric distributions for each task, the chance of this is less than 1 in 1,000.

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You are in the process of Source Selection for a contract for your project. You are planning to use weighing process for source selection. There are four vendors being considered. There are two deciding factors price (weightage 40), quality (weightage 60). The scores of four vendors that your team has computed are displayed in the table below.

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You can see that event M can start any time between weeks 6 and 8. The timing of this event is not critical. Events 1 to 2, 2 to 3, 3 to 4, 4 to 5, 5 to 6 and 6 to 7 must be started and completed on time if the project is to be completed in 10 weeks.

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